Week 17 NFL Picks - Cincinnati Bengals (+9.5) at Baltimore Ravens
Saturday, January 01, 2011
by Aengus Moorehead
Weather:
Mostly sunny. Winds blowing from the Northwest at 5-10 M.P.H. Game-time temperature: Near 65.
Last week’s result:
Cincinnati (+7.5) beats visiting San Diego 34-20. Baltimore (-3.5) beats host Cleveland 20-10.
Last week against the Spread:
Cincinnati upsets; Baltimore covers.
Analysis:
This is what the world expected when the season started. The AFC North title would come down to the last game of the season and it would be the Baltimore Ravens neck in neck with the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Cincinnati Bengals thought they would be part of this equation, but their role now is only as a spoiler to the Ravens chances of winning the division.
The Ravens (11-4) need to win this game and hope the Steelers lose their week 17 game against the Cleveland Browns in order to win the AFC North and finish second in the AFC. Otherwise the Ravens enter as a wild card and do not get the first round bye. The Bengals (4-11) are starting to wonder why their offense looks so much more effective without wide receivers Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco.
This Baltimore defense is not the solid group that the crowd is used to seeing. The front seven are able to contain the pass and shut down the run. Linebacker and defensive leader Ray Lewis see to that. But the secondary, even with safety Ed Reed, is just not what it used to be. The Ravens give up long plays on the passing game, and that has caused the Baltimore offense to have to come up big in the final quarter to win games.
The Bengals defense also had a banner day against the San Diego Chargers last week. They caused turnovers, confined the running and passing game and generally disrupted one of the best offenses in the league. But the Bengals defense is still weak on the front line. The Ravens have a big and athletic offensive line that is more than capable of pushing the Bengals defense around.
The Bengals are loaded up on significant injuries at offense. Wide receiver Terrell Owens (leg) is gone for the season. Wide receiver Chad Ochocino (ankle), running back Bernard Scott (toe) and tight end Jermaine Gresham (knee) are all sitting out of practice and it is not known if they will play.
The Ravens have a long list of nagging injuries as well, but the most significant one is center Matt Birk (knee). They may rest Birk for the playoffs, and that could open up the middle of the Baltimore offensive line.
The Bengals demonstrated a new attitude last week, but as usual, it's too late to save their season. They have owned the Ravens lately and coupled with a surprising offensive burst last week against the Chargers, the Bengals will be tough to handle. Take points and Bengals.
Bet on Cincinnati (+9.5) at Baltimore at Bovada Sportsbook
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Tags
baltimore ravens - bernard scott - chad ochocinco - cincinnati bengals - ed reed - jermaine gresham - matt birk - ray lewis - terrell owens
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